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Less-Hot Take on the Iran Strike
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Less-Hot Take on the Iran Strike

Living with uncertainty...

Clearly it was a technically militarily fantastic operation, carried out flawlessly. It showed great capabilities. It was tactically significant in that it laid the ground for future strikes by taking out air defenses, and will make it more complicated for Iran to replace high quality missiles from their stocks of they shoot them at us by taking out the solid state fuel production. However, it did not change the strategic picture. It did not put Iran any farther, even a day, from getting nuclear weapons and committing a second Holocaust which is their stated goal (not stated by that method, but by the 'ring of fire' generally). It does nothing to their economic infrastructure (oil) which is what allows them to finance the many proxy groups we are now at war with on 7 fronts.

I'm a civilian. I don't know what's possible. I don't know what threats the Americans made if we were to hit those sites. But I know Bibi is extremely risk averse, so my general assumption is we are pulling our punches except where shown otherwise. If this turns out to be a long strategy of getting to where we all see is necessary while keeping the Americans on side, then that will turn out to have been the right strategy. If my entire country goes up in a fireball launched from Iran and I and everyone I love dies, or if the country is slowly abandoned by those who can afford to leave due to the threat of that until unable to defend ourselves and we are destroyed and murdered by October 7th style savagery, then it will have been a mistake...

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