Good News, Bad News
We're not out of the woods...
Good News
Iran launched an unprecedented direct attack against Israel last night, with hundreds of drones, ballistic and cruise missiles arriving within minutes. Our air defenses, joined together with our new sunni allies (both official like Jordan and unofficial like Saudi Arabia) shared detection abilities and struck down various flying bombs, working together in a way that would have been impossible to imagine ten years ago. Israel’s ability to defend it’s strategic assets was shown to friend and foe alike, and there was not a single death.
Bad News
But the Biden administration has taken the position of holding the leash on Israel, rather than enabling us to fight and win the war. They are all but handcuffing is to prevent us entering Rafah and finishing Hamas, and now are exerting extreme pressure to prevent us from striking back at Iran in any meaningful way which could establish deterrence. Instead what is likely to happen is we will do nothing or almost nothing, and instead WE will be deterred from doing what we need in Syria and elsewhere to prevent Iran from tightening the noose around our neck. The iron dome has acted as a pain killer as the cancer spreads through our organs unchallenged. If we don’t address the actual source of the illness it will eventually kill us, which is, indeed, their openly stated goal.
Good News
We do have the strength to make Iran pay without (necessarily) setting off a full regional war. Moving into Rafah and dismantling Hamas, an Iranian asset, would send a clear message to Iran, and also to potential regional allies that we are a strong and capable friend who you want on your side and God help you if you cross us. This is why the Saudis are interested in peace with us, not out of any love for the Jews or for Zionism. They want our guns, our technology, our economic, military, and political connections. In short, it is not concessions that win is friends but rather showing that the consequences of being our enemy are great and the benefits of being our friend can be even greater.
Bad News
As of this moment it seems a combination of Iran and our imperial overlord, patron and friend (the USA) is successfully deterring us from any course of action that might lead to a strategic victory for Israel. Both actors are working in concert to prevent any resolution to any problem in the Middle East, preferring to ‘’manage conflict” forever in the mind of the Americans and until they can kill us in the minds of the Iranians.
Despite accusations of warmongering against Netanyahu, the truth is that his great flaw has always been timidity. He is terrified of offending the Americans, and prefers to avoid using the military wherever possible out of a laudable but overly determined effort to avoid any casualties. He is not the type to take a risk, but rather to arrange things to continue on smoothly, just as the Biden folks want. It was this attitude of avoiding conflict as long as possible that got us into this mess, and only an attitude of judging our enemies based on their capabilities NOT our guess as to whether they can be deterred, will get us out of it.
Good News
But you never know. The God of Israel neither slumbers nor sleeps. We might just get lucky and Bibi might realize he has no chance of political survival if both Hamas survives and Iran goes un-humbled. If there’s one thing he has a preternatural talent for it's political survival. That may work to our advantage. May God give wisdom to those he has given power at this historic moment.
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My son waving an Israeli flag at a protest we went to together in Jerusalem. The shirt says, “The entire people demand victory!"
There's no need for further hostilities with Iran. Israel destroyed 90% of their strategic strike force. Iran does not have the strategic airlift capacity to try to invade Istrael nor do they have the ability to provide air cover. For that matter, Israel is no threat to Iran. The Iranian government needs a bogeyman to divert public hatred of the government. They succeeded in doing it but for how long. Something like 70% of Iranians despise their government. That being the case, won could argue that Iran is not a sovereign nation.
Where did the story originate that it was a consulate?