A Changed Middle East
After twenty years of being nearly utterly deterred by our enemies, Israel has achieved 'escalation dominance' over Iran.
At the end of the second Lebanon war in 2006 there was a UN resolution that the international community would disarm Hizbullah and keep them north of the Litani river. Instead the UN ‘peacekeepers’ quickly became impotent witnesses along the Israel-Lebanon border, providing cover for Hizbullah to rearm and getting in the way of any meaningful Israeli response. Ever since then, despite a technological or intelligence success here and there which has slowed Iran's march towards a nuclear bomb (but failed to stop it), Iran has held ‘escalation dominance’ over Israel. We were always terrified to go ‘too far' against any Iranian proxy, notably Hamas in Gaza, lest the Iranians activate Hizbullah in the North. We were afraid to attack Hizbullah lest they activate Hamas. We were afraid to touch either lest Iran activate terror cells in Judea and Samaria, or shoot missiles and drones at us, etc. It was Israel staying up late at night worrying about what it's enemy might do next.
As of the last several months Israel has flipped the tables, shot the dealer in the head, and taken the owner of the casino hostage. We have finished off Hamas as a military force, established that our enemies have NO safe harbor anywhere in the world, that we can get anyone at any time even in Teheran, that we have many unexpected and devious ways of killing our enemies and THAT WE ARE NOT AFRAID TO USE THEM. It is now the mullahs in Iran worrying what Israel might do if provoked.
This was revealed this week as Israel has decapitated the Hizbullah terror army which illegally occupies southern Lebanon. Since the head remains but the rest of the commanders are dead, perhaps it would be more accurate to say they have been ‘disembodied.’ We have also caused mass flight from southern Lebanon and taken out about half of Hizbullah's legendarily terrifying missile stocks, hidden largely in living rooms and garages (thus the orders for civilians to flee). And when Hizbullah publicly begged Iran, their patron, to enter the war to help them, Iran publicly declined, as they have been doing despite protestations to the contrary ever since the assassination of Ismail Haniyah in Tehran, allegedly by Israel, months ago. We are still awaiting their ‘response,’ which is obviously an empty threat at this point.
Despite the many challenges, the fact that we don't know how to end the war in a way that will secure the North, and that the hostages are still in captivity, many Israelis who have been held prone with Hizbullah as a nightmare inducing sword of Damocles over their necks for a generation feel tremendous relief today despite, even because of the escalation.
The IDF is one of the most powerful armies in the world, yet we are usually forced to use that strength to anticipate and absorb blows rather than defeat enemies because of the anti semitic ‘world opinion,’ which blames Jews for their own victimization, and abhors when we take up arms in our own defense. But not today. Today it is Hizbullah and Iran's turn to worry. We know what we are capable of in our own defense, and they are learning that they do not.